Study of Explanatory Power of Deterministic Risk Assessment's Probability through Uncertainty Intervals in Probabilistic Risk Assessment 


Vol. 39,  No. 3, pp. 75-83, Jun.  2024
10.14341/JKOSOS.2024.39.3.75


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  Abstract

In recent years, building architecture has become increasingly complex and larger in scale to accommodate many people. In densely populated facilities, the interiors are becoming more intricate and high-rise, with narrow corridors, hallways, and stairs. This poses challenges for evacuating occupants in case of emergencies such as fires, making it crucial to assess the evacuation safety in advance. In evacuation safety research, there are significant limitations to theoretical studies owing to their association with crowd behavior and human evacuation characteristics, as well as the risks associated with experiments involving human participants. Consequently, evacuation experiments conducted using simulation-based methodologies are gaining recognition worldwide. However, crowd simulations face validation difficulties because of variations in crowd movement and evacuation characteristics across different cases and scenarios, as well as the challenge of accurately reflecting human characteristics during evacuations. In this study, we investigated validation methods for evacuation simulations using the SAFEGUARD validation data set (SGVDS) provided by the University of Greenwich, UK. The SGVDS collects data on crowd evacuations through actual evacuation tests conducted on ColorLine's large RO-PAX ferry and Royal Caribbean International's cruise ships. The accuracy of the crowd simulations can be validated by comparing SGVDS and crowd simulation results. This study will contribute to the development of highly accurate crowd simulations by verifying various crowd simulations.

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  Cite this article

[IEEE Style]

한만형, 천영우, 황용우, "Study of Explanatory Power of Deterministic Risk Assessment's Probability through Uncertainty Intervals in Probabilistic Risk Assessment," Journal of the Korean Society of Safety, vol. 39, no. 3, pp. 75-83, 2024. DOI: 10.14341/JKOSOS.2024.39.3.75.

[ACM Style]

한만형, 천영우, and 황용우. 2024. Study of Explanatory Power of Deterministic Risk Assessment's Probability through Uncertainty Intervals in Probabilistic Risk Assessment. Journal of the Korean Society of Safety, 39, 3, (2024), 75-83. DOI: 10.14341/JKOSOS.2024.39.3.75.